That 2023 will not be as dynamic a year as the one that just ended, due to the high inflationthe economic slowdown and international uncertainty does not mean that there are no opportunities to invest.
(Also read: Dollar: why is its value falling in Colombia and the world?)
On the contrary, rising inflation, interest rates at levels not seen for several years and very low prices of some assets, such as shares, we have good opportunities to take advantage of a situation that seems completely negative.
Only, as at any time, you have to act very cautiously, analyzing the right moment to enter or leave to achieve a better return on resources, and for this it is necessary to take into account the objective of the investment that will be made and in level of risk tolerance that one has.
(You may also be interested in: The banks that offer the most profitable CDTs)
Today the market offers alternatives for every occasion, some more popular than others, says Juan David Ballén, director of Analysis and Strategy of the brokerage firm Casa de Bolsa, who points out that some are even ideal for dealing with the high explosion.
The expert refers to the Term Certificates of Deposit (CDT) that are tied to the behavior of inflation. Thus, if it rises, the returns for the person will be higher or lower if it falls.
“This is one of the most appropriate mechanisms to cover this year from the country’s current inflationary conditions, but it will have to be done until when this variable range reaches its highest peak this year, which could be in April,” he says.
There are also the CDT indexed to the IBR, an indicator that moves similarly to the behavior of the Banco de la República rate, and fixed-rate certificates.
To get the most out of the latter, what the experts recommend is to go very slowly, invest in those CDT to 30 days waiting for the Issuer to finish adjusting its interest rates upwards, something that would end between February and March, according to market analysts.
“Since inflation is rising, it is very likely that interest rates will also do so, so the ideal is to renew these CDTs every month to achieve a higher return and not do it over a longer term because the opportunity to obtain a higher return is lost. rate”, explains Ballén.
He adds that when inflation touches a level at which it begins to decline, which may be in the first half of the year, it is advisable to switch to a longer duration investment, since rates will begin their downward cycle and it is most appropriate, then , is to invest in a longer term with a high rate one or two years depends on the ability to endure.
Until last January 12, the banks recognized a rate of between 11.5 and 7.13.85 percent effective per year in CDT at 30 and 90 days, according to reports from the Financial Supervision.
Real estate and shares
The high inflation with which it closed last year, 13.12 percent, also created good opportunities in the real estatesince the rents this year will be adjusted according to that variable.
In this sense, the investment options can be next to some real estate funds or invest directly in real estate, but if you have some experience, “it is a natural hedge in an inflationary scenario,” he says.
It’s not the only thing. Ballén also points out that due to the low prices of the Actions not only in Colombia but in the world, this will be a good time to enter this segment thinking about the medium and long plane, not about something short.
What to buy? One of the alternatives could be raw materials, although they are slightly more prominent investments, says the expert, who sees that some alternatives may be in companies oils, minerals (gold, copper) and those types of assets that, in an inflationary scenario, help prevent the purchasing power of money from being lost.
“Investing in real goods or whose supply is finite or scarce helps a lot to protect yourself in an inflationary scenario, since the price of this type of goods tends to rise,” explains Ballén.
AND, Is it advisable to invest in dollars or other currencies?
For the expert it will always be advisable to have some exposure in foreign currency in an investment portfolio. “The dollar It has been going up for a couple of years, ideally the exposure would have been a little higher than normal to hedge against the devaluation of the exchange rate. Our expectation is that the dollar will continue to be strong in the first semester, at a high price, it has been falling, but it can rise again and remain strong, ”she points out.
ECONOMY AND BUSINESS